Research 2000’s poll for Daily Kos shows Dodd up 45-40 on Simmons, with a 4% Margin of Error. While a bit better for Dodd than the last Q poll, it is difficult to compare two different polls with different samples, different questions and different methodologies. In any event, these are still pretty poor numbers for a three decade incumbent. Dodd’s favorable/unfavorable is +7 (13 no opinion), while Simmons’ is +23 (41 no opinion).
Caligiuri appears to be a nearly-complete unknown; 82% have no fav/unfav opinion. Even so, Dodd barely breaks 50% against him, 51-30.
That means there are a lot of people simply voting against Dodd,
and not for his opponent, regardless of who it is. Good for the Republicans, not so much for Dodd.
Also, Rell retains an approval rating of over 70% and polls pretty well in hypothetical 2012 matchups against Lieberman and either Lamont or Blumenthal.
Wait until the election really begins in earnest; and the Republicans start rolling out the campaign ads featuring Chris Dodd with three different explanations of the AIG Bonuses in three days. This should be fun!