Well, the “unscientific” polls aside, the one scientific poll I trust has weighed in at Rasmussen Reports, and it’s quite a bit different than the others.
This is a slightly different analysis than you’ll see on the Rasmussen site, thanks to my contact there.
Texas Survey of 831 Likely GOP Primary Voters
Conducted January 17, 2010, By Rasmussen Reports
(NOTE: Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 3.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence)
1* Suppose the Republican Primary for the 2010 Governor’s race were held today. Would you vote for Rick Perry, Kay Bailey Hutchison or Debra Medina?
11% Not sure
This is to be expected. Just that Medina went from an entry position of 3% in November to 12% this week is a 400% increase; that she’s in double-digits at all shows the strength of her followers. This 12% has been done with no major media commercials in either TV or Radio; no major endorsements, and only yard signs, personal appearances, and word-of-mouth to propel her campaign.
For such a limited amount of exposure, 12% is damn near phenomenal.
But also consider that 11% of the electorate is still undecided. That’s 12% who still will not commit to either of the incumbents, perry or Hutchison. These 11% are Medina’s for the taking.
2* I’m going to read you a short list of people in the News. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.
|Candidate||Very favorable||Somewhat favorable||Somewhat unfavorable||Very unfavorable||Not sure|
|Kay Bailey Hutchison||23%||50%||21%||4%||2%|
Or, to rephrase the results by combining . . .
|Kay Bailey Hutchison||73%||25%||2%|
Medina is an unknown quantity, so she pretty much splits the field within the margin of error. Perry and Hutchinson have almost identical Favorable and unfavorable ratings, although Perry has a iny bit more unfavorables than Perry. While this is very likely a trick of the statistics, it may also be betraying some simmering resentments against Perry.
Or not. Be interesting to see what the next poll shows after the second debate.
3* Should Kay Bailey Hutchison remain in her position as senator while she is running for Governor?
13% Not sure
I was somewhat surprised by this. While Hutchison originally was to resign her position to run for governor, it appears the electorate doesn’t trust Harry Reid as far as we could throw him (and ten million Texans could throw his skinny butt pretty damned far, I’d reckon.)
So it would appear Texas would rather have Kay Bailey break a promise than Harry Reid.
4* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?
8% Strongly approve
8% Somewhat approve
10% Somewhat disapprove
73% Strongly disapprove
1% Not sure
Ithink this pretty much speaks for itself, as well as backs up the Kay Bailey question. Texans overwhelmingly disapprove of what’s going on in Washington; specifically when the President’s got his name all over it. And Texans seem to be leading the pack of disapproval, too.
5* How would you rate the job Rick Perry has been doing as Governor… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?
22% Strongly approve
46% Somewhat approve
20% Somewhat disapprove
11% Strongly disapprove
1% Not sure
This is a bit more surprising . For all the grumbling I’ve heard about Governor Perry around San Antonio, it doesn’t seem to show in this poll, and makes me wonder if I’m listening to disaffected Perry supporters, or if the survey sample isn’t being truthful with Rasmussen. A 68% approval rating for the Governor is a death knell to the Medina and Hutchison campaigns; yet Kay Bailey had almost identical numbers on an earlier question?
I have a feeling this number will shift more the closer we get to the primary; although I could be wrong.
Rasmussen added an interesting note on their website:
Perry jumped out to an 11-point lead – 46% to 35% – in November after Hutchison’s tour of the state to announce her candidacy had turned the race into a toss-up just two months earlier. In mid-July, Perry led Hutchison by 10 points, 46% to 36%.
But Medina, the owner of a medical consulting firm, is the only candidate who is gaining ground, up from four percent (4%) of the GOP vote in November and three percent (3%) in September. Some political analysts have said Medina was the strongest performer in last Thursday night’s GOP gubernatorial debate, although most of the focus was on Perry, who is seeking an unprecedented third term as governor, and Hutchison, a member of the U.S. Senate for the past 16 years.
Count on these numbers changing. I’m informed that BELO corporation, the sponsor of the second debate, has decided to invite Medina to the second debate, so it will still be a horse race for the forseeable future.
Stay tuned. Medina is still the one to watch here.