Rasmussen Reports has released the second half of the survey they did immediately after the Gubernatorial debates last week. While interesting, it seems to mirror the results of the first half of the survey.
Texas Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters
Conducted January 17, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports
NOTE: Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence
1* Election 2010: Texas Governor’s Race
Rick Perry (R) 50%
Bill White (D) 40%
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) 52%
Bill White (D) 37%
Debra Medina (R) 38%
Bill White (D) 44%
This appears to reflect the trend of the country currently (and especially last night in Massachusetts) against Democrats. It’s interesting that Medina, with limited name recognition, is only 6% behind White, and still in run-off contention.
2* I’m going to read you a short list of people in the News. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.
Candidate Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Not sure Rick Perry 19% 36% 21% 21% 3% Kay Bailey Hutchison 18% 43% 27% 8% 4% Bill White 23% 26% 18% 17% 16% Debra Medina 10% 29% 20% 12% 29%
Or, if you combine the Favorables and unfavorables together . . .
Candidate Favorable Unfavorable Not sure Rick Perry 55% 42% 3% Kay Bailey Hutchison 61% 35% 4% Bill White 49% 35% 16% Debra Medina 39% 32% 29%
Perry has the largest Unfavorable ratings of any candidate, which may just be a matter of exposure and being a known quantity. However, talking with the Tea Party people here in San Antonio, I don’t think that’s all there is to it. Hutchison has the highest favorable ratings, and Medina the lowest Unfavorables.
3* Should Kay Bailey Hutchison remain in her position as senator while she is running for Governor?
21% Not sure
The more I think about this one, the more I believe the only explanation is that Texans don’t trust San Fran Nan Pelosi and Dingy Harry Reid at all, and want Kay there to B-slap them as necessary. Whether Kay will do that remains to be seen.
4* Governor Perry withdrew Texas from a federal program offering up to $700 million in education grants. He expressed concern about education guidelines from the federal government as a result of accepting the grant. Do you agree or disagree with Governor Perry’s decision to turn down $700 million in education grants.
10% Not sure
Split right down the middle, which mirrors the division voters feel about the Texas schools generally. This could very well be a ticking time bomb for Perry. I wouldn’t hitch my wagon to the star of Texas schools during the campaign if I was he.
5* Generally speaking, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and the congressional Democrats?
This figure is just a few points away from the figure for Kay Bailey to stay in the Senate. There may very well be a connection.
6* How likely is it that there will be another terrorist attack in the United States in the next year?
22% Not likely
11% Not sure
7* Should the December attempt to blow up an airliner as it was landing in Detroit be investigated by military authorities as a terrorist act or by civilian authorities as a criminal act?
68% By the military as a terrorist act
20% By civilian authorities as a criminal act
12% Not sure
Notice how the numbers on these two questions are almost identical. Not much division of thought among Texans on Terrorism.
14* How would you rate the job Rick Perry has been doing as Governor… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?
2% Not sure
If I were Rick Perry I’d be very worried right now. While he’s been Governor for two terms and has massive name recognition, yet he barely ekes out a 53% approval? He also split approval of his schools funding question at 45% as well. Plus his challenger Kay Bailey has higher approvl numbers than he has — and the no-name challenger (Medina) is generally acknowledged to have won the debate.
Really, all Rick Perry has going for him is inertia — and he seems to be running out of that, just like Kay Bailey.