A funny thing happened on the way back from the Debate Thursday night . . .
As I noted in my previous post HERE, Texas’ newspapers seemed to have many commenters who thought Debra Medina had acquitted herself well in the debate on Thursday.
Possibly as a reaction to that apparent groundswell of support, many of these newspapers put up unscientific polls of their readers to see who they thought won the debate.
The results were surprising. The Texans Uniting for Reform and Freedom website, an admittedly anti-Perry Group, shows an overwhelming vote for Medina:
CBS-11 in Dallas had a similar result:
My Fox Dallas-Fort Worth was also similar:
As well as the Fort Worth Star-Telegram too:
In fact, eight of eight polls agree:
Source | Perry % | Hutchison % | Medina % | Medina Votes | Total |
T.U.R.F. | 8.7 | 3.6 | 87.8 | 344 | 392 |
CBS-11 in Dallas | 8 | 7 | 76 | unk. | unk. |
My Fox Dallas-Ft Worth | 14 | 16 | 68 | unk. | 2517 |
Fort Worth Star-Telegram | 14 | 15 | 62 | 661 | 1073 |
Big Country Blog | 10 | 13 | 71.3 | 855 | unk. |
Abilene Reporter-News | 7 | 8 | 83 | 1186 | 1426 |
Univision TV | 4 | 1 | 95 | 363 | unk. |
KEYE Austin | 11.9 | 16.5 | 56 | unk. | unk. |
This is where I put my Bachelor’s in Psychology and statistics to work. The first thing I noted is that the sample sizes seem to vary greatly. While two of the polls have the total number of respondents in the 300’s, the others var from around one thousand to around 1500 to around two thousand. Were the Medina campaign trying to taint the results by over-voting the surveys, the sample sizes would be more regular.
But some of the surveys, while including the nubmer of total votes or votes for one candidate, do not have all the information. We can infer this data by doing the math on the known variables, as I have in the revised table below. (Inferred data is in italics and starred*.)
And with a little re-arrangement for clarity, we have this:
Source | Perry % | Hutchison % | Medina % | Medina Votes | Total |
Univision TV | 4 | 1 | 95 | 363 | 382* |
T.U.R.F. | 8.7 | 3.6 | 87.8 | 344 | 392 |
Fort Worth Star-Telegram | 14 | 15 | 62 | 661 | 1073 |
Big Country Blog | 10 | 13 | 71.3 | 855 | 1199* |
Abilene Reporter-News | 7 | 8 | 83 | 1186 | 1426 |
My Fox Dallas-Ft Worth | 14 | 16 | 68 | 1712* | 2517 |
KEYE Austin | 11.9 | 16.5 | 56 | unk. | unk. |
CBS-11 in Dallas | 8 | 7 | 76 | unk. | unk. |
As widely as the sample sizes vary, it would be impossible for a dedicated band of, say, 350 or so Medina followers to influence the results of a poll of 2,517 respondents. This lends credibility to the results, even though the people surveyed in these polls are more likely to be active politically, and more “fired up” for their respective candidates.
Interesting. So it actually appears to show a groundswell of support for Debra Medina among committed political activists.
The survey for We Are Austin.com is actually a survey about the election with ALL candidates, Republican and Democrat, included.
So according to We Are Austin.com, not only does Debra Medina place far ahead of all other Republican challengers (including the incumbent Governor), she would even beat the very popular former Houston Mayor Bill White by a 6 to one margin.
And, again, obviously not a scientific poll, but . . . . interesting.
I have it on very good source that the Rasmussen organization will do a survey of the Texas Governor’s Race this coming week. Apparently this race is generating significant “buzz” in the powers that be.
Awaiting those results as well.
~Johnny~
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We had a small debate watch party that was open to all, regardless of who they supported. By the end of the debate, a Perry supporter switched to Medina and an undecided person chose Medina. Perry and Huchinson came across as the career politicians they are. With Medina on the stage, the political slick-talk and avoidance of questions and real issues became grotesquely evident to the average voter.
The rule this election season should be no incumbents regardless of party. That is, unless they have shown an unwavering support of our Constitution (Ron Paul). It appears that anti-incumbent fever is going to be a major epidemic in 2010.
[…] star rising? Could we have our very own Mass uprising here? Look at the after 1st debate polls: Game Changer: Debra Medina Leading in the Texas Gov. Polls? Alamo City Pundit Reply With Quote + Reply to Thread « Previous Thread | […]
[…] Here is a series of interesting polls released from inside of Texas. Below are videos of Debra Medina’s respones. […]